A közlekedésépítési szakterület mérnöki és tudományos folyóirata. ISSN: 2064-0919
15. szám
9. évfolyam
2021 július

Nemzetközi szemle: Október

A közlekedés stratégiai kihívásai 1. kötet: Áruszállítási infrastruktúra beruházások jövőképének tervezése

Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment

C. Caplice, S. Phadnis
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

Terjedelem: 166 oldal

Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for departments of transportation (DOTs) to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends. NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment is the first report in this series which provides decision makers with a critical analysis of the driving forces behind high-impact economic and social changes as well as sourcing patterns that may affect the U.S. freight transportation system. The U.S. freight transportation system is a key underpinning of American economic activity. Understanding the driving forces that could most significantly affect the transportation system over the next 50 years will allow local, regional, and national transportation decision makers to anticipate and invest in transportation system improvements that enable the system to continue to provide key structural support to the U.S. economy. Foreseeing changes over the longer term future and the consequences of such changes is difficult but not entirely impossible. Management strategies that recognize emerging trends and are flexible, adaptive, and able to respond effectively will help ensure that the transportation system continues to support the growth of the economy and the delivery of an increasingly high quality of life for the nation. By identifying the most significant trends and other forces between now and 2050, considering plausible trend lines (scenarios) for these forces, examining how they might interact with each other, identifying what indicators should be monitored and what the potential tipping points are that would indicate a systematic shift, and determining how the indicators can be monitored, decision makers will be enabled to make better infrastructure investments. Under NCHRP Project 20-83(01), the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was asked to provide decision makers with a critical analysis of the driving forces behind high-impact economic changes and business sourcing patterns that may affect the U.S. freight transportation system. To accomplish the research objective, the research team catalogued and assessed driving forces, points where systemic changes occur, leading indicators, and critical dependencies, as well as the relative importance of these factors to future freight patterns. The research team then identified plausible representative scenarios of driving forces and their impacts on future levels and patterns of freight movement, fully articulated to enable “what-if” discussions of consequences, opportunities, and threats posed. The team also identified the means for realizing, accommodating, or managing policy strategies under the various scenarios. Four future scenarios were developed as part of the research project, as well as a detailed methodology for planners to follow to conduct their own scenario planning workshops.



A közlekedés stratégiai kihívásai 2. kötet: Klímaváltozás, rendkívüli időjárási események és a közúthálózat: gyakorlati útmutató és kutatási jelentés

Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events,
and the Highway System: Practitioner’s Guide and Research Report

M. Meyer, M. Flood, J. Keller, J. Lennon, G. McVoy, C. Dorney, K. Leonard, R. Hyman, J. Smith
Parsons Brinckerhoff, Cambridge Systematics, Stratus Consulting, USA

Terjedelem: 213 oldal

This report presents guidance on adaptation strategies to likely impacts of climate change through 2050 in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of infrastructure assets in the United States (and through 2100 for sea-level rise). There are many potential impacts of climate change on the highway system. Climate change is likely to increase the Earth’s average temperature, change extreme temperatures in different parts of the world, raise sea levels, and alter precipitation patterns and the incidence and severity of storms. Such change will likely become an important driver of how the state departments of transportation (DOTs) design, plan, construct, operate, and maintain their highway systems. Recent extreme weather events have led to a rethinking of how infrastructure is designed and managed during such events. Practitioners need a sound foundation on which to plan for the near-term—through 2050—impacts of climate change. This foundation should encompass an assessment of the probable impacts, identification of vulnerable infrastructure, and technical tools and proposed institutional arrangements to guide adaptation of the infrastructure to the anticipated impacts.
The objectives of NCHRP Project 20-83(05) were to synthesize the current state of worldwide knowledge regarding the probable range of impacts of climate change on highway systems by region of the United States for the period 2030–2050; recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches, and strategies that state DOTs can use to adapt infrastructure and operations to these impacts and lessen their effects; and identify future research and activities needed to close gaps in current knowledge and implement effective adaptive management. The project examined adaptation to climate change on three scales of application—road segment, corridor, and network—including the types of impacts likely to be faced in coming years and the different design, operations, and maintenance strategies that can be considered. The report discusses adaptation planning in the United States and in other countries, with special consideration for the approaches taken in developing adaptation strategies. This volume assembles two major project deliverables: The Practitioner’s Guide (Part I) to conducting adaptation planning from the present through 2050 (through 2100 for sea-level rise), and the research report (Part II) that summarizes the research results supporting the development of the Practitioner’s Guide and provides recommendations for future research. A diagnostic framework for adaptation assessment is presented consisting of eight steps: Identify key goals and performance measures for the adaptation planning effort; define policies on assets, asset types, or locations that will receive adaptation consideration; identify climate changes and effects on local environmental conditions; identify the vulnerabilities of asset(s) to changing environmental conditions; conduct risk appraisal of asset(s) given vulnerabilities; identify adaptation options for high-risk assets and assess feasibility, cost effectiveness and defensibility of options; coordinate agency functions for adaptation program implementation; conduct site analysis or modify design standards, operating strategies, maintenance strategies, and construction practices.


A közlekedés stratégiai kihívásai 3. kötet: A közlekedési rendszer teljesítményét javító jövőbeni technológiák bevezetésének gyorsítása
Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Volume 3: Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance
S. W. Popper, N. Kalra, R. Silberglitt, E. Molina-Perez, Y. Ryu, M. Scarpati
RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology Program, USA

Terjedelem: 119 oldal

This report presents a process (Systematic Technology Reconnaissance, Evaluation, and Adoption Methodology or STREAM) to compare these technologies to alternatives on the basis of their likely effects on agency goals, including consideration of barriers to implementation. STREAM’s use is illustrated in three case studies. This report will be useful to research units within state DOTs and other units responsible for evaluating new technologies. Transportation agencies may use various options to capitalize on technology to improve transportation system performance. For instance, information and communication technology allows for enhanced traveler information, instant re-routing and mode choice, and facilitating pricing-based strategies. Future technologies offer even greater potential to improve safety, reliability, and mobility. Furthermore, this subject area can involve not only adoption of technologies by transportation agencies, but ways in which transportation agencies can anticipate and help shape research and development of various technologies that can affect transportation system performance. Technology often changes faster than agencies can react. In particular, the results of research can be slow to be implemented into practice. Many transportation agencies do not have the business processes and organizational structures in place that allow rapid adoption and deployment of relevant technologies. Furthermore, many barriers outside the control of transportation agencies affect the ability to advance technologies from research to deployment. Partnerships with the private sector and opportunities for knowledge transfer from other industries may help the transportation sector more effectively adapt in this dynamic environment. The RAND Corporation developed a process that transportation agencies can use to identify, assess, shape, and adopt new and emerging technologies to achieve long-term system performance objectives. The process reflects relevant trends in technologies and their applications and helps transportation agencies anticipate, adapt to, and shape the future. The research team identified and assessed trends in technologies applicable to the mission of state DOTs and barriers to implementation of these technologies. The research team then assessed typical performance objectives adopted by state DOTs that such technologies could be expected to aid in meeting. These insights were instrumental in developing STREAM which was then evaluated using several case studies, including meeting with the Minnesota DOT to discuss how STREAM could be applied to bridge deck evaluation. Case studies were also conducted for driver information and snow removal/ice control to assess STREAM’s practicality across the range of state DOT functions. The STREAM process has five steps. The final step, deciding whether to adopt the technology, must always take into consideration an agency’s specific objectives and context; however, earlier steps in the process can be done jointly with other agencies. This approach will reduce costs and staff time and speed the implementation of beneficial technologies.



A közlekedés stratégiai kihívásai 4. kötet: A fenntarthatóság, mint a közlekedési szakirányítás szervező elve
Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies>
B. A. Hamilton McLean, USA

Terjedelem: 270 oldal

This report provides state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other transportation agencies with an analytical framework and implementation approaches to assist them in evaluating their current and future capacity to support a sustainable society by delivering transportation solutions in a rapidly changing social, economic, and environmental context in the next 30 to 50 years. This report will be useful to senior transportation agency officials and policymakers who are positioning their agencies for continued relevancy in an uncertain future. Increasing awareness of the environmental, economic, and social effects of the transportation system has already led to new demands on transportation agencies to be more responsive in providing transportation services. Transportation agencies are challenged to build consensus around balancing short-term cost effectiveness and long-term sustainability. While the roles and responsibilities of transportation agencies differ from state to state, there are common organizational attributes and characteristics that transportation agencies need in order for their transportation systems to support the environment, the economy, and social equity. Booz Allen Hamilton was asked to develop an analytical framework for transportation agencies to use to identify and understand the future trends and external forces that will increasingly put pressure on their ability to carry out their responsibilities to meet society’s evolving demand for transportation services while also meeting society’s emerging need to operate on a more sustainable basis. The research identified likely alternative future scenarios in which transportation agencies could be asked to achieve sustainability goals of the triple bottom line of economic vitality, social equity, and environmental integrity under conditions 30 to 50 years in the future; analyzed how transportation agencies’ existing fiscal, legal, and institutional structure(s) and decision making processes encourage or inhibit them from optimizing their contribution to a sustainable society; examined the variety of roles, and the nature of their related primary activities, that transportation agencies may be expected to play in the future; explored linkages, and expectancies, between transportation agencies and stakeholders, and the need to form new alliances and partnerships with other transportation providers and system users; and provided tools that individual agencies can use in designing their particular approach(es) to adapt to the demands and opportunities of the future and in describing, in broad terms, how “sustainable” transportation agencies might be organized. Against a backdrop of changing societal expectancies related to transportation, the traditional functions of many transportation agencies are changing. As they evolve, transportation agencies will have to be resilient in the face of continuing and new demands by society, and they may need to fundamentally rethink the mission(s) and organizing principle(s) that drive them today.



A közlekedés stratégiai kihívásai 5. kötet: Az állami közlekedési szakirányítás felkészítése a bizonytalan jövőbeni energia helyzetre

Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future

P. Sorensen, T. Light, C. Samaras, L. Ecola, E. M. Daehner, D. S. Ortiz, M. Wachs, E. Enarson-Hering, S. Pickrell
RAND Corporation, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., USA

Terjedelem: 296 oldal

This report examines how the mandate, role, funding, and operations of state departments of transportation (DOTs) will likely be affected by changes in energy supply and demand in the next 30 to 50 years, and identifies potential strategies and actions that DOTs can employ to plan and prepare for these effects. The report describes how robust decision making techniques can be used to help navigate the potential risks and rewards of different policy and management responses under differing surface transportation energy supply and demand scenarios. The report will be useful to senior policy analysts and long-range planning officials who want to more effectively understand and manage energy uncertainty as part of policy development and long-range planning activities. Growth in global energy consumption, especially within the transportation sector, is expected to increase demand for oil. Given that the entire transportation sector accounted for more than 90% of all liquid fuel consumption in 2006, it is clear that changes in energy infrastructure and energy sources will affect transportation activities. Because fossil fuel emissions and greenhouse gases from all sources are expected to continue to increase, contributing to air pollution and climate change, the push to move toward energy efficiency and alternative fuels in the transportation sector is expected to continue.
World population growth and energy demand are inextricably linked, but the fossil based energy supply is finite. Alternative technologies are emerging in the marketplace, and these could prompt enormous changes over time in how DOTs operate. Implementation of alternative fuels will also necessitate a change in highway funding strategies. Most of the revenue that DOTs currently use for the construction, operation, and maintenance of the highway system comes from federal and individual state gas taxes assessed on traditional motor vehicle fuels. The ability to finance future transportation programs has already been negatively affected by various technological, economic, and social changes, and these affects will be magnified over time. The RAND Corporation was asked to identify short- and long-range actions and strategies that state DOTs can use to plan, respond to, and otherwise manage under a broad range of plausible future energy scenarios, and to assess the likely consequences associated with potential policy responses and management strategies. The research identified driving forces, leading indicators, critical interdependencies, and their relative importance to future energy use and alternative fuel scenarios; developed representative scenarios regarding the future use of energy and alternative fuels that may result from the driving forces; and analyzed how the mandate, role, funding, and operations of state DOTs may be affected by various plausible future energy supply-and-demand scenarios.



A közlekedés stratégiai kihívásai 6. kötet: A társadalmi és demográfiai változások hatása a jövőbeni utazási igényekre
Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand
J. P. Zmud, V. P. Barabba, M. Bradley, J. R. Kuzmyak, M. Zmud, D. Orrell
RAND Corporation, Resource Systems Group, Inc., Renaissance Planning Group, Metropia, Systems Forecasting, USA

Terjedelem: 140 oldal

This report presents the results of research on how socio-demographic changes over the next 30 to 50 years will impact travel demand at the regional level. It is accompanied by a software tool, Impacts 2050, to support transportation agencies in their long-term planning activities to enhance decision making. This report will help transportation decision makers understand how the population may change over time, how socio-demographic changes will affect the ways people travel, and the kinds of transportation modes and infrastructure that will be needed. The profile of America is expected to change substantially over the next 40 years. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, current trends suggest that the U.S. population is anticipated to increase to 438 million by 2050, more than a 40% increase from the 2008 population of 304 million. This population will be more ethnically diverse; a significant percentage of the projected population increase is attributed to immigration. The population also will be substantially older; it is estimated that more than 20% of the U.S. population will be 65 years or older by 2050, compared to 12.6% currently. The sizeable increase in population will create the need for more housing, employment, and services, which may lead to substantial impacts on travel patterns and demands. It has been estimated that the majority of the U.S. population will live in mega-regions, with more than 80% of the population in metropolitan, urban, and suburban areas. Baby Boomers are expected to choose a “soft retirement” and continue to work part-time beyond retirement age. Young people coming out of full-time education may increasingly choose to enter what they consider temporary, short-term jobs, which they use to finance international travel, volunteering in nonprofit or arts-related careers, and/or continued education. Changes in family structure, participation of women in the labor market, incomes, lifestyles, and social expectations may also occur. A research team led by the RAND Corporation looked at how socio-demographic issues over the next 30 to 50 years are likely to change the population’s transportation needs, travel patterns, and expectations regarding mobility. The research approach involved identifying a number of plausible future scenarios and development of a systems dynamic model that simulates the demographic evolution of a regional population starting from a baseline of the 2000 census and spanning a period of 50 years. The four future scenarios were developed using a Strategic Assumptions Surfacing and Testing (SAST) technique and include the following: Momentum: gradual change without radical shifts; Technology Triumphs: technology solves many present-day problems; Global Chaos: a collapse in globalism and sustainability, and Gentle Footprint: a widespread shift to low-impact living. The model does not predict which scenario is most likely; instead it predicts how travel demand will change under each of the five sectors: socio-demographics, travel behavior, land use, employment, and transportation supply.



A külsőségi utak biztonságát segítő útgeometria kialakítása
Road Geometry Study for Improved Rural Safety
a letöltéshez ingyenes regisztráció szükséges

C. Jurewicz, P. Aumann, C. Bradshaw, R. Beesley, A. Lim
Austroads, Australia
Terjedelem: 96 oldal

This report draws on literature and crash data analysis to identify and quantify geometric road design elements which contribute to casualty crash occurrence and severity on rural roads, e.g. lack of sealed shoulders, steep downhill grades combined with curves, roadsides with narrow offset to roadside hazards, and high-flow rural at-grade intersections. These findings were supported by a before and after evaluation of casualty crash reductions expected from shoulder sealing, pavement widening and road realignment. Combining this evidence and inputs by the Austroads Road Design Task Force, the report proposes a number of possible changes to Austroads road design guides aimed at reducing the casualty crash risk on rural roads. Most proposed changes involve clarification of guidance, e.g. for selection of design speed in challenging alignments, use of speed limits to control speeds, use of sealed shoulders, selection of barriers and clear zones, and greater guidance for design of low speed roundabouts. A Commentary is provided discussing the usefulness of different types of evidence in revision of road engineering guidance. It is intended to make it easier for policy makers to select and commission the most appropriate inputs for consideration.



Korai repedések aszfaltbeton burkolatokon
Premature Asphalt Concrete Pavement Cracking
R. C. Williams
Iowa State University, USA
Terjedelem: 163 oldal

Recently, the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) has identified hot mix asphalt concrete
(HMAC) pavements that have displayed top-down cracking within three years of construction. The objective of the study was to evaluate the top-down cracked pavement sections and compare the results with the non-cracked pavement sections. Research involved evaluating six surface cracked pavements and four non-cracked pavement sections. The research included extensive field and laboratory investigations of the 10 pavement sections by conducting distress surveys, falling weight deflectometer (FWD) testing, dynamic cone penetrometer (DCP) testing, and coring from the cracked and non-cracked pavement sections. Cores were then subjected to a full laboratory-testing program to evaluate the HMAC mixtures and binder rheology. The laboratory investigation included dynamic modulus, indirect tensile (IDT) strength, and specific gravity testing on the HMAC cores, binder rheological tests on asphalt binder and aggregate gradation analysis. The FWD and DCP tests indicated that top-down cracked pavement sections were structurally sound, even some of the sections with top-down cracking showed better structural capacity compared to non-cracked sections. The study also found that top-down cracking initiation and propagation were independent of pavement cross-section or the HMAC thickness. The dynamic modulus testing indicated that cores from all the top-down cracked pavement sections except one section (OR140) possessed stiffer mixtures than that of non-cracked pavement sections. All four non-cracked pavement areas were found to be exhibiting fairly high IDT strength, and low variability in IDT strength and HMAC density when compared to top-down cracked sections as indicated by the IDT strength tests and air void analysis. Asphalt binder rheological test result indicated that asphalt binders from all the top-down cracked sections except OR140 showed higher complex shear modulus (stiffer binder) compared to non-cracked pavement sections. The study concluded that top-down cracking could be caused by a number of contributors such as stiffer HMAC mixtures, mixture segregation, binder aging, low HMAC tensile strength, and high variability in tensile strength or by combination of any.



Háromféle közösségi közlekedési fedélzeti utas felmérés adatminőségének és költségének összehasonlítása
Comparing Data Quality and Cost from Three Modes of On-Board Transit Passenger Surveys
A. W. Agrawal, S. Granger-Bevan, G. Newmark, H. Nixon
Mineta Transportation Institute, USA

Terjedelem: 92 oldal

This report presents the findings from a research project investigating the relative data quality and administration costs for three different modes of surveying bus passengers that produce results generalizable to the full passenger population. The three modes, all of which used survey methods distributed or administered onboard the transit vehicle, were: self-complete paper surveys, self-complete online surveys , and interviewer-assisted tablet-based surveys. Results from this study indicate several implications for practitioners choosing a survey mode. First, and most importantly, the analysis reinforces the point that there is no single, best survey mode. The choice of mode must depend on an agency’s priorities for what questions most need to be answered, what population groups are most important to represent, and exactly how the agency chooses to define concepts like a “complete” survey or a “usable” address. Findings suggest several general recommendations for current survey practice: online surveys administered via an invitation distributed on the transit vehicle are not a good option; old-fashioned, low-tech paper survey may still be the best option for many bus passenger surveys; changes in survey results that accompany changes in survey methods should be interpreted with caution; and using a new survey method, especially one relying on more complex technologies, may create unexpected glitches.



Forgalmi adatok minőségét biztosító eljárás bevezetése a dinamikus tengelyterhelés (WIM) mérőhelyeken
Implementation of Traffic Data Quality Verification for WIM Sites
C.-F. Liao, I. Chatterjee, G. A. Davis
University of Minnesota, USA
Terjedelem: 68 oldal

Weigh-In-Motion (WIM) system tends to go out of calibration from time to time, as a result generate biased and inaccurate measurements. Several external factors such as vehicle speed, weather, pavement conditions, etc. can be attributed to such anomaly. To overcome this problem, a statistical quality control technique is warranted that would provide the WIM operator with some guidelines whenever the system tends to go out of calibration. A mixture modeling technique using Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was implemented to divide the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) measurements of vehicle class 9 into three components, (unloaded, partially loaded, and fully loaded). Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) statistical process technique was used to identify any abrupt change in mean level of GVW measurements. Special attention was given to the presence of auto-correlation in the data by fitting an auto-regressive time series model and then performing CUSUM analysis on the fitted residuals. A data analysis software tool was developed to perform EM Fitting and CUSUM analyses. The EM analysis takes monthly WIM raw data and estimates the mean and deviations of GVW of class 9 fully loaded trucks. Results of the EM analyses are stored in a file directory for CUSUM analysis. Output from the CUSUM analysis will indicate whether there is any sensor drift during the analysis period. Results from the analysis suggest that the proposed methodology is able to estimate a shift in the WIM sensor accurately and also indicate the time point when the WIM system went out-of-calibration. A data analysis software tool, WIM Data Analyst, was developed using the
Microsoft Visual Studio software development package based on the Microsoft Windows® .NET framework. An open source software tool called R.NET was integrated into the Microsoft .NET framework to interface with the R software which is another open source software package for statistical computing and analysis.



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